The commencement of election campaigns this week as the sessions in Holyrood and the Senedd come to a close sees Reform on their lowest share for both votes and seats so far this year – indicating that their support is continuing to wane as the most significant round of local elections this parliament looms closer. Incidentally, their projected number of seats this week is the lowest of any &Elections’ forecast since a week after last year’s local elections – when Reform were projected to win 266 seats on 08 May ’25. Ultimately, due to the nature of the fractured polling climate, this waning of support (primarily to ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe’s new outfit, Restore Britain) manifests as a haemorrhaging of potential seats for Reform, as despite being only 0.8pp down on last week’s forecast, they are down 20 seats. There is, however, little cumulative change for the main parties competing for seats against them: the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems combined only gain 6 seats in this week’s forecast as compared to last week’s; this is as any gains by these parties (Labour, in particular) are displaced by additional projected losses to the Greens – who again return to their most favourable forecast ever: 61 seats on 16.5% of the vote (up 8 and 0.7pp, respectively, on last week). Furthermore, this forecast is &Elections’ first-ever where no party or bloc in Great Britain would be projected to win fewer than 10 (and for good measure, even 11) seats if an election were held today. It is also worth noting that the Greens’ figure specifically has had such a significant jump due to Verian, the most accurate pollster of the 2024 cycle, conducting a poll putting them at 20% – which, thus, is weighted more heavily into the model.

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Nearly a month on from Labour’s cataclysmic performance in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the position of Starmer’s party has restabilised – albeit at just 74 seats and 18.4% (up 19 and 1.0pp on two weeks ago). Reform’s momentum is also visibly waning: until last week, Reform had been projected to win over 300 seats in all but one of &Elections’ forecasts since the beginning of July – yet they are now down 30 seats from a fortnight ago, with 292 forecast seats on 26.0% of the vote (which in turn is down 1.2pp). The Greens are now healthily ahead of the SNP, with 53 projected seats, down only 5 seats and 0.4pp on their bounce following the by-election.

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Despite a plague of scandal haunting Labour’s 2026, the event that ultimately presented an existential threat to them was their abysmal showing in the Gorton and Denton by-election – with their vote halving. Over the past month, Reform have gone down 1.1pp, and their seat tally remains constant; the Lib Dems have gone down 0.4pp, however they rise three seats; the Tories are down 1.6pp and 12 seats; the Greens are up 2.1pp and 20 seats; and Labour are down 1.2pp and 22 seats.

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Despite the tumult of British politics, over the past month, almost nothing has changed. Reform remain on the exact same seat share as they were on 08 Jan, being only down 0.2pp in vote share. The Tories are down 7 seats and 0.4pp; Labour are up 8 seats and 0.6pp; the Lib Dems and SNP remain on a constant seat share, with both only down 0.1pp in vote share; the Greens are up 0.3pp in vote share, but down one seat; Plaid Cymru is up 2 seats and 0.3pp; and finally others and independents are down 2 seats and 0.4pp.

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Labour are currently set to fall to a seat share lower than the Lib Dems’ 2024 result under &Elections’ projection this week - with 69 seats on 18.0%, 13 and 1.1pp down on this time last month. Comparatively, the Tories - having been as far back as fifth; barely inching above 17% of the vote in the late summer and early autumn - would be set to be the second largest party, albeit with 85 seats and 20.2% of the vote (up 13 and 0.7pp on a month ago). Reform, however, would be down 6 seats, 4 seats short of a majority on 28.5% of the vote, 0.2pp less than a month ago.

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This week, Reform are down 15 seats on where they were a fortnight ago, being projected a majority of only 6, down from 36 - while Labour and the Tories are both slightly up. This swing away from Reform, though, comes much more to the benefit of the Conservatives than to Labour, with the Tories set to be 16 seats better off compared to last week, while Labour are only set to be up only 7 seats, and regarding vote share, Badenoch’s party is up 1.3pp, while Labour are up just 0.2pp.

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The overarching story over the past three weeks is that support for Zack Polanski’s Greens has continued to increase, now leapfrogging the Liberal Democrats in projected vote share. Otherwise, Reform and the Lib Dems and Labour are down marginally (by 0.6pp and 8 seats; 0.7pp and 3 seats; and 0.6pp and 14 seats respectively), while others and independents have dropped significantly, down 1.3pp and 6 seats since 30 Oct. Elsewhere, the Conservatives are up 0.4pp and 11 seats, Plaid Cymru is up 0.2pp and 1 seat, and the SNP are up 0.1pp.

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To the benefit of Reform and the Greens, Labour’s vote has been squeezed substantially compared to last week. Consequently, Reform are up 15 seats and 0.8pp to 351 seats on 29.8% of the vote; Labour are down 14 seats and 0.7pp to just 89 seats on 19.5% of the vote; the Tories are down 4 seats and 0.2pp to 45 seats on 17.8% of the vote; and the Greens are up 0.5pp and 4 seats to their best-ever projection of 18 seats on 11.7% of the vote.

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This week, Reform are up 0.1pp and 6 seats; Labour are down 0.2pp and 5 seats; the Conservatives are down 2 seats and 0.2pp; the Greens are up 0.6pp and 2 seats; and others and independents are down 0.4pp and 1 seat. This week’s tally is the Greens’ best-ever and is indicative of a continued shift on the left toward Polanski’s party alongside a steady abandonment of the anticipated Corbyn-Sultana project after four consecutive weeks of forecast decline in seat share for others and independents. Furthermore, this projection is &Elections’ joint-worst-ever for Labour in terms of vote share, and their third worst in terms of seat share.

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Regarding vote share - the post-conference trends remain the same as last week, although the Tories are up 0.4pp and Reform are down 0.4pp. Seat changes this week though are unusually substantial due to the inclusion of Electoral Calculus’ September MRP poll into &Elections’ MRP collation model. Nevertheless, this week Reform are down to 330 seats from 347, yielding a majority of just 10; Labour are up 9 seats and 0.2pp to 108 seats on 20.4% of the vote; the Lib Dems are down 1 seat and 0.1pp on last week; the Tories are up 10 seats on last week; others and independents are down 2 seats on last week; and the Greens are up 1 seat, but down 0.1pp on last week.

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Despite having survived the Labour Conference and prospective leadership challenges having waned, this week is Labour’s worst ever under &Elections’ model, whilst also Reform and the Greens’ best showing. For the first time, &Elections is projecting that Labour will drop below 100 seats, to 99 with only 20.2% of the vote - 5 seats and 0.4pp behind last week. Reform, on the other hand, are up 1 seat on last week to 347, albeit with a projected 0.2pp decreased vote share. The Greens have the biggest increase this week following their conference - up 2 seats and 0.8pp from last week to 11 seats on 10.7% of the vote.

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This weeks’ projection sees a surge for Reform to 346 seats on 29.8% of the vote - up 16 seats and 0.6pp on last week. This tally surpasses &Elections’ 19 Sep forecast by 7 seats to become Reform’s best-ever performance under &Elections’ model. This increase has been driven by Find Out Now’s 1 Oct poll, which puts Reform on 35% (their joint-highest-ever recorded share), and 16pp ahead of Labour (their joint-second-best lead), although More in Common’s 26-29 Sep and YouGov’s 27-29 Sep polls put Farage’s outfit on a more modest 30% and 29%. Labour, meanwhile, is back down to 104 seats on 20.6% (down 8 seats, 0.6pp on last week) - only performing 4 seats and 0.2pp better than &Elections’ worst-ever forecast for Starmer’s party. There are no significant changes elsewhere, although the Lib Dems are down by 4 seats and 0.2pp, and others and independents are down 3 seats, but up 0.2pp to 14 seats and 4.5% of the vote.

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