Despite having previously been neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru, Reform UK’s edge on the Welsh electorate could be slipping as Labour’s fortunes have only continued to worsen. Before the Caerphilly by-election in October, it was widely considered that Reform would probably be the largest single party in the Senedd, even if there would likely have been no viable path for them to form a government. Plaid’s underdog victory in this election, where it was widely considered they’d come a close but firm second, has since bolstered the party’s hopes for the Senedd election this may - with Rhun ap Iorwerth’s outfit being just under 5pp and 7 seats up on &Elections’ forecast in late September. Reform, however, would be down by approximately 3pp and 8 seats on that forecast. Labour, meanwhile, are down 4.6pp and 2 seats, as the Greens are up 4 seats and 5.2pp.

&Elections Website - Senedd

&Elections Website

&Elections Website

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This month, to Labour’s chagrin, Reform and Plaid Cymru are up. Even though Labour are only down 5.6pp, this translates to being 15 seats down on &Elections’ last projection, when, bearing in mind, there are only 96 seats in total. A key reason for this stark decrease for Labour is that even though the new electoral system does allocate seats proportionately to the vote for each party, its reliance on doing so within individual constituencies, instead of a regional or national level makes it difficult to achieve exact proportionality. This effectively means that the system, instead of being one election where 96 candidates are elected proportionally to the vote share, manifests as 16 different elections under proportional representation where only 6 candidates are elected. Labour’s decrease from ~20% to ~15% nationally means that in most constituencies they change from being entitled two seats to just one seat.

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