01/09/25 Holyrood Projection: SNP to Retain Most Seats Despite Vote Collapsing

&Elections' inaugural projection of next year's Scottish Parliament election has the SNP storming ahead despite their vote share collapsing.

Superficially, the Scottish National Party returning only one fewer MSP than in 2021 would be remarkable if it were contingent on an ability to rebuild the coalition that allowed them to win almost every election in Scotland since 2007. In reality, the Scottish National Party’s forecast steady seat performance is actually in spite of their vote share in both the regional and constituency ballots declining by over 13pp. Conversely, Labour, despite winning a landslide victory in the general election, are set to have their vote share stagnate and their notional seat total decline by two - a performance that would disappoint Anas Sarwar considering Labour’s political misfortunes in Scotland have predominantly stemmed from their unfavourability in Westminster, and are likely to now deny them the opportunity to capitalise on the political failings of the SNP throughout 2023 and 2024.